Louisiana Senate 2026 Race Guide: Julia Letlow vs. Jamie Davis and the End of Bill Cassidy's Career

The most consequential moment in the 2026 Louisiana Senate race may have happened more than five years before election day.

On February 13, 2021, Republican Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana voted to convict Donald Trump in his second Senate impeachment trial — one of just seven Republican senators to do so. The Louisiana Republican Party censured him within days. Trump, who had backed Cassidy's 2020 re-election campaign, called him "very disloyal." For the next five years, the question was whether Louisiana Republican primary voters would forgive him.

They did not.

On May 16, 2026, Cassidy finished third in his own party's primary, behind Congresswoman Julia Letlow — who had Trump's endorsement — and state Treasurer John Fleming. He won only three of Louisiana's 64 parishes. In a state where Trump won by roughly 22 points in 2024, Cassidy had become a symbol of Republican apostasy, and Louisiana Republicans made clear they had not forgotten.

What remains for November 3, 2026, is a general election between Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis, a third-generation farmer from one of the smallest communities in northeast Louisiana. No major forecaster — Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections — rates this race as competitive. But the story of how this seat opened, who fills it, and what it signals about the modern Republican Party makes Louisiana one of the defining chapters of the 2026 midterm cycle.

The Fall of Bill Cassidy

Cassidy, a physician who had served in the Senate since 2015, was the chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee and one of the most legislatively active Republican senators of his era, per STAT News. His impeachment conviction vote on February 13, 2021 — cast days after he had won re-election with Trump's endorsement — infuriated both Trump and Louisiana Republicans alike.

"Bill Cassidy, after falsely using his 'relationship' with me during his political career, and winning Elections because of it, voted to impeach me," Trump wrote on Truth Social on primary night. "His disloyalty to the man who got him elected is now a part of legend, and it's nice to see that his political career is OVER!"

Cassidy attempted, over the following years, to repair his standing. He cast the deciding vote to advance Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s nomination as HHS Secretary — despite being a physician who had long championed vaccines — a move that STAT News noted conflicted with his medical background but reflected the political pressure he was under. He touted his working relationship with Trump and highlighted bipartisan legislation in which he played a major role.

It was not enough. An Emerson College Polling/KLFY News 10 survey before the May primary found Cassidy at just 21% support among likely Republican primary voters, with a 49% unfavorable rating. He entered primary night on the verge of becoming a lame duck in his own race.

Primary results confirmed the collapse. Letlow led with 44.8% of the vote (179,903 votes), while Fleming finished second at 28.3% (113,437). Cassidy placed third with 24.8% (99,496), per NBC News, which projected his loss alongside the Associated Press. He carried just three parishes statewide — among the worst primary performances for any non-appointed U.S. senator in modern history.

The result made Cassidy the first previously elected senator of either party to lose a primary since Richard Lugar of Indiana in 2012, per Politico. In his concession speech, Cassidy declined to attack any opponent by name and warned against concentrating power in "one individual" — a thinly veiled reference, per The New York Times, to the president who had targeted him.

The June 27 runoff was comparatively routine. Letlow won 56.9% to Fleming's 43.1%, per USA Today, with Trump sending last-minute text messages to Louisiana voters on her behalf. The Associated Press called the race less than an hour after polls closed.

Who Is Julia Letlow?

Julia Letlow's biography is unlike most politicians' in both its origin and its arc.

Born March 16, 1981, she earned her bachelor's and master's degrees from the University of Louisiana Monroe and her doctorate from the University of South Florida. She worked as an administrator at UL Monroe and had no political ambitions until late 2020.

Her husband, Luke Letlow, won Louisiana's 5th Congressional District in November 2020. On December 29, 2020 — five days before he was to be sworn in — he died from COVID-19 complications at age 41, per CNN. Julia Letlow entered the 2021 special election to fill the vacancy and won, becoming the first Republican woman elected to represent Louisiana in the House of Representatives.

"I want to pick up the torch that my husband left behind," she said at the time.

She won re-election in 2022 and 2024, secured a seat on the House Appropriations Committee, and — per her 2026 Senate campaign materials — directed more than $130 million in targeted federal funding to Louisiana's 5th District during her House tenure. When Trump endorsed her for the Senate seat in January 2026 — before she had formally announced — the race was effectively over for Cassidy.

Letlow's campaign also carried endorsements from Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, whose super PAC spent heavily targeting Fleming in the runoff, and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, per PBS NewsHour. She received more than $1 million from the MAHA PAC, a political committee affiliated with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., per WWNO.

Her campaign made Cassidy's impeachment vote a centerpiece of her message. "This is not my seat, it's the people's seat. Unfortunately, I believe he forgot that when he took that vote," she told supporters on primary night, per the Louisiana Illuminator.

If she wins in November, Letlow will become the first Republican woman to represent Louisiana in the U.S. Senate. The only woman to previously hold the seat was Democrat Mary Landrieu, who served from 1997 until losing her 2014 re-election bid — to Cassidy.

Who Is Jamie Davis?

Jamie Davis does not pretend the math is in his favor.

"Was Mike Tyson the favorite when Buster Douglas knocked him out?" Davis told USA Today Network after winning the Democratic nomination. "This seat is empty. Nobody can be anointed, including Letlow."

Davis, 55, is a third-generation farmer from Waterproof, Louisiana — a community of roughly 541 residents in Tensas Parish, south of Monroe. His grandfather was a sharecropper. His father founded Davis Farms in 1977. Davis studied electrical engineering at Louisiana State University before returning to work the family land and serve on the Tensas Parish Police Jury and the Louisiana Democratic State Central Committee.

He entered the Senate race in fall 2025 as a near-complete unknown. His campaign raised only $16,691 as of December 31, 2025, per Federal Election Commission data — a figure that captures both the depth of his longshot status and the partisan disparity in Louisiana. (Cassidy alone had more than $10 million in cash on hand as of the same date, per FEC data.)

Despite the resource gap, Davis dominated the Democratic primary and runoff, capturing 80% of the Democratic runoff vote over New Orleans businessman Gary Crockett and winning all 64 parishes in both contests, per USA Today. His platform centers on affordability: lowering insurance costs (Louisiana consistently ranks among the most expensive states for home and auto insurance), reducing prescription drug prices, protecting healthcare access, and what he describes as rebalancing the tax code toward working families.

The General Election Landscape

Every major forecaster rates this race Safe Republican or Solid Republican, and the structural case is robust.

Louisiana has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Mary Landrieu won her third term in the 2008 cycle, per NOLA.com. Republicans hold every statewide office. Trump carried Louisiana by approximately 22 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, per reporting from 19th News. Letlow carries name recognition across the state, Trump's blessing, and an endorsement infrastructure spanning the governor's office to House Republican leadership.

Political analyst Bernie Pinsonat told the Louisiana Radio Network after the runoff: "She will be elected to the Senate, they will run a few Trump ads, they'll do some minor stuff, she is a cinch to be elected to the United States Senate."

No active Louisiana Senate general-election market was found across major election prediction market platforms — consistent with the race's Safe Republican standing in every major forecast.

One additional structural context: Louisiana held its Senate primary under a closed-party system in 2026 for the first time in recent memory, per Axios. Previously, Democrats could participate in Republican primaries — a factor that may have softened Cassidy's margins in past cycles. The shift, implemented under Gov. Landry, eliminated that cross-party buffer and helped seal Cassidy's fate.

Why This Race Matters Beyond Louisiana

The Louisiana seat will almost certainly contribute one Republican vote to the Senate's next session. But Cassidy's primary loss carries broader significance.

He is now one of only two previously elected senators to lose renomination in the past 14 years, per Politico. With his departure, Senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine are the only remaining Senate Republicans who voted to convict Trump in 2021 still in office — and Collins is facing a competitive re-election race in Maine this cycle, per the Louisiana Illuminator.

The message to Senate Republicans is clear: a major break with Trump is career-ending, even years after the fact. That reality will shape how the Senate's next class governs, regardless of which party holds the majority.

The Senate control question, meanwhile, remains the central uncertainty of the 2026 cycle. After a volatile August primary season — including a historic South Carolina runoff, Montana's three-way spoiler dynamic, and coin-flip general election races in Iowa, Michigan, Georgia, and Texas — the chamber balance stands at exactly 50/50 on election prediction markets.

The House has trended sharply toward Democrats all cycle, now priced at 86 cents:

Louisiana will send Letlow to Washington in January 2027, almost certainly. The open question is what chamber she'll be joining — and which party will control it.

Key Dates

• Republican and Democratic Primary: May 16, 2026
• Runoff: June 27, 2026 — Letlow wins 56.9%; Davis wins Democratic runoff with 80%
• General Election: November 3, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Bill Cassidy lose his primary? Cassidy voted to convict Donald Trump in his February 2021 Senate impeachment trial. Louisiana Republicans censured him within days. In the May 16, 2026 primary, he finished third with 24.8% of the vote — the first previously elected senator of either party to lose a primary since 2012.

Who is Julia Letlow? Letlow, 45, is a Republican congresswoman who has represented Louisiana's 5th Congressional District since April 2021. She entered politics after her husband, Luke Letlow, won the seat but died from COVID-19 before taking office. She holds a doctorate from the University of South Florida and serves on the House Appropriations Committee.

Who is Jamie Davis? Davis, 55, is a third-generation farmer from Waterproof, Louisiana, in Tensas Parish. He won the Democratic Senate nomination with 80% of the runoff vote and is running on an affordability platform focused on insurance costs, healthcare, and tax equity.

Is the Louisiana Senate race competitive? No. Every major forecaster rates it Safe Republican or Solid Republican. Louisiana has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008, and Trump carried the state by approximately 22 points in 2024.

What does Cassidy's primary loss mean nationally? Cassidy is the first previously elected senator to lose a primary since 2012, per Politico. His loss confirms that voting to convict Trump in 2021 remained a career-defining liability through the 2026 cycle.

When is the Louisiana Senate general election? November 3, 2026.